With the end of 2020 right around the corner, it might seem hard to fathom that the most memorable year in recent times is coming to an end. But in the same sense it feels like the year just flew by as well.  For a year as screwed up as this, it doesn’t seem like it could get any worse, but one might be surprised. This year has brought many together, kept many apart, contained many tragedies and many benefits. However, the oddest year in recent times still might not be over, even in 2021.

Talk has been spreading around that the actual number of pregnant women in the year of 2021 might drop as a result of Covid-19 and the quarantines that were put in place. One might think that this would increase the pregnancy rate, but the opposite is actually expected to happen. Data was originally published in June and revealed that such a decrease in U.S. births would account for a 10 percent decrease compared to 2019 births. This decrease means that the total number of babies to be born in the U.S. next year is projected at about double the total number of Americans who died with or from coronavirus according to breitbart.com. This means that this could potentially be Covid X2, with half a million babies projected to be lost/not born. How will this affect the economy?

Fewer babies means fewer workers, customers, consumers, taxpayers, and our future would depend on half a million less people. Less people will obliviously affect the economy due to these reasons but each has their pros and cons. With fertility trap in the thoughts of many, our economy can do things to combat this. A Ferity trap is when less women are born, creating less chances of repopulation. In the second half of the 20th century, the U.S. was in a pattern that was seen elsewhere, but the fertility tended to fall during recessions and then bounce back when the economy recovered.

With this consideration, the economy of the U.S. might be in a frenzy.  As stated above fewer workers, customers, consumers, and taxpayers will bring a bigger burden on each to support future retirees. The 2020 annual report of the trustees reports, “every two-tenths decline in the total fertility rate (that is, two fewer children per 10 women) necessitates an increase in the Social Security payroll tax of about 0.4 percentage point,” according to a table in the of the Social Security trust funds. Even after Covid passes and people start to open up more, its sure that the economy will be effected for at least the first portion of the year. Considering the financial loses taken by many during these times, it will take some time to reestablished the old way of living.

Demographers (people who study characteristics of human populations) back in 2007-2009 were bracing for this to happen to the population after the recession. Which just so happened to be the big/deepest since the Great Depression. In a written report from October 2011 Pew Research Center wrote, “People put off having children during the economic downturn and then catch up on fertility once economic conditions improve.”

However, the baby shortage from the recession never hit even though the U.S. economy staged the longest expansion on record. “Every time that people decide to push back when they’re going to have their first kid or their next kid, some proportion will end

up not having the child at all,” says Karen Guzzo, a sociology professor at Bowling Green State University.

The scare of a baby shortage in 2021 is more probable than we think; indicators of the birthrate potentially declining can be seen in The Wedding Report Inc. Their surveys show that a little over 60% of weddings scheduled in 2020 have been delayed into 2021. Which leaves people to wonder that this might happen. I can attest to this as I work in the wedding catering business and I have seen a great drop in hours. Over 25+ weddings have been canceled and rescheduled to 2021 in the past three months alone.

As the pandemic broke out, birth control providers reported an increase in sales, reportedly from people stocking up in case of shortages. However, providers of long-lasting forms of birth control have also seen an increase in sales and demand. The Pill Club Holdings Inc. saw a 65% increase of sales in June of their product Annovera, a vaginal ring that prevents pregnancy for up to a year. The U.S. has had birth control readily available for those in need which has protected my users from pregnancy. April’s estimate by the United Nations Population Fund also found that the poor and middle-income countries have effects on not having birth control, which can be the sole cause to as many as 7 million unintended pregnancies in just half a year. April’s estimate by the United Nations Population Fund also found that

These two examples both demonstrate the growing concern and realism to this topic of a baby shortage. While projections are projections and the last time it was called it was wrong, precautions must still be taking in the event of this actually happing.

In conclusion the idea of a baby shortage in 2021 doesn’t seem to unrealistic anymore. While at first thinking of a lockdown and people having to stay in their homes for an extended period of time, pregnancy seems like it should be high. But once you consider that people are afraid of the virus, health being a big concern, and the finances for a child could be compromised then a lack in pregnancy doesn’t seem unrealistic. However, the oddest year in recent times still might not be over, even in 2021.