Caucuses: Results and Predictions

Caucuses: Results and Predictions

photoshop by Mr. Rogers

The Iowa Caucuses for the 2016 election were held on Monday February 1, 2016. For those that do not know, the Iowa Caucuses are electoral events in which residents of Iowa meet in precinct caucuses and elect delegates. They vote for both the Republican and Democratic parties. This year’s results were very close, and very interesting.

The Republican side of the Iowa Caucuses had three candidates all finishing very close to first place. The top three candidates were Ted Cruz, Donald Trump, and Marco Rubio. Ted Cruz won receiving 28% of the votes. Donald Trump finished in second with 24%, and Rubio was not far behind him receiving 23%. The fourth place finisher was Ben Carson, but he was well behind Rubio. Trump was the slight favorite coming into Iowa, so Ted Cruz winning is kind of an upset. Even though the favorite may not have won, the top three finishers were the three candidates expected to be in the top three. Since the Caucuses three Republican nominees have dropped out: Mike Huckabee, Rand Paul, and Rick Santorum.

The Democratic side of the Iowa Caucuses only had three candidates get substantial votes. They were Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, and Martin O’Malley. Clinton and Sanders finished one and two in a very close race that was separated by very few votes. Clinton was; however, eventually announced as the winner. This has not slowed down Sander at all, but it has O’Malley to suspend his campaign. O’Malley received about 1% of the votes. The rest were almost evenly split between Clinton and Sanders.

The next primary will be in New Hampshire on February 9th. Candidates such as Ben Carson and Jeb Bush from the Republican side will be looking for a big boost in numbers from the people of New Hampshire. They will both need to do much better in New Hampshire than Iowa if they want to keep their presidential hopes alive. Candidates Such as Cruz, Trump, Rubio, Clinton, and Sanders will be looking to continue their successes. The predicted winners of this primary are Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders. I agree that Bernie Sanders will most likely win the Democratic votes because he is a senator from Vermont, a close neighbor of New Hampshire. I also believe that because he was so close in Iowa, more of his supports will show up in New Hampshire to vote for him.

SPARTANBURG, SC - APRIL 3: Senator and GOP presidential candidate Ted Cruz answers questions from local media following a town hall meeting at the Beacon Drive-in restaurant on April 3, 2015 in Spartanburg, South Carolina. The Beacon Drive-in, traditionally a popular venue for campaigning politicians, was Cruz's 2nd stop of the day in South Carolina. (Photo by Richard Ellis/Getty Images)
SPARTANBURG, SC – APRIL 3: Senator and GOP presidential candidate Ted Cruz answers questions from local media following a town hall meeting at the Beacon Drive-in restaurant on April 3, 2015 in Spartanburg, South Carolina. The Beacon Drive-in, traditionally a popular venue for campaigning politicians, was Cruz’s 2nd stop of the day in South Carolina. (Photo by Richard Ellis/Getty Images)

I believe Trump may have some extra votes in New Hampshire because he is a New York business man, but I do not believe he will win the Caucuses. If I had to make a bold prediction, I would say Carson or Bush might make a big leap back up into the conversation of who gets the Republican nomination, but that is unlikely. If I were to make a more safe prediction I would say either Cruz or Rubio win it, and I think Rubio will get a majority of Iowa Caucuses votes. I think Rubio will win because he was in a very close third in Iowa and he has a strong following in the North East.

Some students have even been paying attention to the presidential race. A sophomore from St. Xavier High school, Ross Kern, said, “The caucuses have me surprised and excited for the upcoming presidential election in 2016 because of the amount of Republican support shown throughout the event. I believe that any Republican candidate has a chance at winning the nomination and any of them can beat Clinton. We have her emails and Benghazi to thank for that.”

I agree that there are not any Republicans candidates that I am counting out. I also agree that any Republican candidate is better than any Democrat candidate. Kern also said that he was surprised how close Bernie Sanders was to beating Clinton; however, the biggest surprise to him was that Ted Cruz beat Donald Trump. Kern also said, “The rumors about Ted Cruz’s party sending emails to supporters of Ben Carson saying he dropped out of the race.” I do not know if that last part is true, and I am on both Ben Carson’s and Ted Cruz’s email list. I did not any emails from either parties pertaining to what Kern stated.

Were you surprised by the results of the Iowa Caucuses?

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We have plenty of time between now and the presidential election in November; however, the race for the white is in full swing right now. The race continues to heat up as we get closer to primaries, and the candidates are doing everything they can to get every vote. They are doing their last bit of campaigning hoping to win their party’s nomination. The candidates can do and will do everything they can to try to persuade the votes to vote for them, but it is ultimately up to America to who gets to be the 45th president of the greatest country in the world, the United States of America.